A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
